Sunday, October 28, 2007

Presidential Election 2008 - Do You Want To Know Who Is Going To Win?

I contend that it is not too difficult to predict who will win the 2008 Presidential election:

1. The polls already have Hillary Clinton with a big lead over Barak Obama for the Democrats and I don't see any Republican in this race who can defeat either of them.

2. If you look at who has the most money it is clear that Hillary and Barak are both raising more funds than anyone else in either party. Mitt Romney is the fund raising leader in the Republican party. See my web site for the exact numbers.

3. If it were only a matter of money (and money does buy votes) who ever wins the Democratic nomination will be the next president.

4. Right now it looks like a three horse race for the Republicans with Rudy Giuliani, Fred Thompson and Mitt Romney all having a chance for their party's nomination. However, as I said before, it really doesn't matter who the Republican nominee is.

5. So I predict Hillary and Barack will be slugging it out for the Democratic party nomination, which will also decide the Presidential election.

There is no clear cut Republican front runner. If the Republicans can't even figure out who they want as their candidate, how can they possibly defeat a political machine like the Democrates have put together.

And don't even get me started on the war in Iraq.

No, I submit to you that this race is clearly between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

So, which of them is going to win?

Hillary Clinton has more money than Barack Obama has.

Females rank higher on the political power chart than black males.

I recently read some people are forecasting that up to 25% of white female Republicans are likely to switch sides in 2008 and vote for Mrs. Clinton.

And, what about black women? Are they going to vote for the black candidate or will they vote for the white female. I think it will be split, some will vote black and some will vote female, which will dilute the power of the black female vote.

I have said as far back as 5 years ago that Barack Obama will be our first black President. Unfortunately, I fear this is not Barack's time. I predict that Hillary is going to win this election by a land slide.

To learn more about the candidates for President in 2008 and their positions on all of the issues visit: http://www.ukandoit.us/Campaign2008/MeetTheCandidates.html

There you can find a lot of information about the candidates, the issues, current polls, news videos, and much more.

2008 Presidential Election Betting Hits The Online Sportsbook Campaign Trail

Election betting is not new. In fact, Las Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy “The Greek” Snyder gained fame and credibility (which later led to a spot on CBS’ NFL preview show) when, after noting that women did not trust men who wore mustaches, boldly predicted that underdog incumbent President Harry S. Truman would defeat New York Governor Thomas E. Dewey in the race for the Oval Office in 1948. Or so the story goes.

The irony is that Nevada sportsbooks do not accept wagers on elections. The often cited reason is not that, like entertainment award voting such as the Oscars, that someone knows the results of the balloting in advance, but that there is something queasy about mixing gambling and politics.

Yeah, right.

Certainly, most online sportsbooks outside the jurisdiction of the Silver State have little difficulty in posting futures on who will win the next four-year lease at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. The process, which should come to a conclusion when delegate-rich states such as California, New York and Florida vote next February, already is underway with 10 Republicans and eight Democrats vying for the prize. Each party field could grow and there also is the possibility for a fusion ticket or an independent candidacy.

Generally, online sportsbooks attack the 2008 election in one of three ways. The simplest way is to post a generic proposition on which party will win the White House. Led by a President with record low approval ratings and saddled with an increasingly unpopular war in Iraq, the Republicans are clear underdogs to maintain control in 2008, usually listed as +140 underdogs (bet $100 to win $140). On the other hand, Democrats, with their base more energetic and independent voters tracking in their direction, are quoted as -160 favorites (bet $160 to win $100) to regain control of the Oval Office.

Could someone unaligned with either of the major parties, such as an independent or a third party candidate, win? You can get +5250 on that remote possibility.

Many online sportsbooks also boast separate future books for Democrats and Republicans. Although she voted to authorize the Iraq war, a very unpopular position among party activists, New York Senator and former First Lady Hillary Clinton heads the list of Democrats, usually at odds around 4/5. Representing a younger generation, Illinois Senator Barack Obama is the clear second choice at 5/2 with former North Carolina Senator John Edwards, 5/1, and as yet unannounced candidate, former Vice President Al Gore, offered from a low of 4/1 to a high of 10/1. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson, who widely is viewed as an ideal vice presidential choice, Senators Chris Dodd (CT) and Joe Biden (DE), former Senator Mike Gravel (Alaska) and Congressman Dennis Kucinich, are longshots.

Despite holding liberal to moderate views on many social issues, such as abortion, gay rights and gun control, former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani is a 7/5 favorite to get the nod of the largely conservative GOP to run for President. Arizona Senator John McCain, who holds an unpopular position on immigration, is the 5/2 second choice with former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, whose positions have evolved (his detractors would say “flip-flopped”) is quoted at 4/1 with former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson likely to enter the race in July at about the same odds as Romney.

Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, would enter the race at about 15/1 should he diced to run, ahead of previously announced candidates such as former Governors Mike Huckabee (AK) and Tommy Thompson WI), Senator Sam Brownback (KS), and Representatives Duncan Hunter, Ron Paul and Tom Tancredo.

Senator Chuck Hagel (NE), 30/1, could enter the race as either a Republican or as an independent.

The third way online sportsbooks offer Presidential election futures is to lump all the candidates together in one massive book. The difference between this type of book and the separate party books is the same as the difference between World Series and pennant futures; more risk but more reward in going for the whole enchilada.

Clinton is the favorite in the big book, usually at about 2/1. Giuliani checks in next at odds of 7/2 with Obama at 4/1, McCain at 6/1, Romney and Gore at 8/1.

As the 2008 election draws nearer, many online sportsbooks will add key Senate, House and Governor races to their wagering menu, providing even more options to election betting.


2008 - Election Of Your Life

We're a year away from the next US presidential election and already there is universal desperation for change in this country, and through this country, the impetus for a better world. Judging from the broad spectrum of candidates who've thrown their hat into the ring, no doubt change is what we'll get. The question for all Americans is, how drastically do you want things to change, and in which direction? And the only question all Americans must answer is, will you participate in the process of creating change, or will you sit this one out?

If you're an American, the 2008 race may well be the election of your life. Don't sit it out. Here is why:

If you are between age eighteen and twenty-five, your head is spinning wondering what happened to the America you hear people older than you reminisce about or of which you read in books. That America has not been your America. Since you were a child you've lived in a country increasingly party-divided, a country now coming off the closest two presidential elections in its recent history, which sequentially turned-out the highest voting populations ever. Not to mention, you were introduced to the political system via the 2000 Presidential election fiasco, likely making you wonder whether your country is not just as corrupt as some archetypal Latin American dictatorship south of the border, one we've historically been eager to overthrow. Furthermore, the bombardment of messages, technology, media hype and digital devices that you have never known life to be without makes it nearly impossible to pay attention to anything, or believe what you do absorb. Yet you have unique ways of tuning in via the Internet, social media, and virtual group collaboration. You have the cynicism of youth on your side to improve your power of discernment. Now in your twenties, you have an opportunity to make your adult voice heard for, perhaps, the first time. Please use it.

If you're 30-ish or 40-ish, born in but too late to partake in the free love partying and political-rallying of the 60's and 70's, you're still old enough to remember a bucolic, likely suburban upbringing when only one of your parents worked to provide a comfortable family life. A time before microwaves, cell-phones, the Internet and digital-everything, your childhood was filled with freedom; freedom from online pedophiles, freedom from overdeveloped land, freedom from terrorist attacks, and even the simple freedom of your mother not knowing where you rode your bike and hung out after school. You've witnessed, lived through, and somehow adapted to drastically-accelerating change in your country and the world at large in a relatively short period of time. This has given many of you a global mindset and desire to move away from the post-World War II capitalist, survivalist American Dream race of achievement toward something truer, better, but not necessarily bigger. You see how we politically came to be where we are in America, and may have seen enough of the world to realize it doesn't have to be this way. You are in your prime, you carry economic clout, and you hold leadership positions. Now is your time to step up and be involved. Please do so.

If you are a baby-boomer, in your 50's or early 60's, the present state of our union should feel not only painfully familiar, but frightening. You are no stranger to revolution, to change, and to standing up to the establishment. Even if you weren't politically active during the Kennedy, Eisenhower, and Nixon years, you are definitely old enough to remember the lessons of those times and you have no excuse for not doing so. Many of you, the progeny of early twentieth-century immigrants to the US, through your courage managed to mold equal opportunity for and abolish injustice against minorities. Through your heritage and your diversity you've contributed to the multi-cultural, multi-racial mix that is America now. You are the most numerous and wealthy generation this nation has ever seen. Your ballast can sink or stabilize this ship. Please, if you have not done so already, get on board and help us steer it in the right direction.

And last but not least, if you are a veritable senior citizen, age 75 or older, well you've just about seen it all, haven't you? You've seen how governments, a world, a universe, can give and take life. You have the long-term view of where we've been as a country, and you possess the wisdom of experience that can guide us toward where we're going. You've been around enough to have lived the adage that those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it. You may be angry, you may be frightened, you may be resigned, you may be ill and infirm, or you may simply be old and tired. But YOU ARE STILL HERE. And we need you, all of you, to stay involved in preserving the America - not the government, not the politics - but the ideal, that so many of your generation fought and lost its lives for. Please don't leave the ring yet, stay in and keep fighting the good fight. The rest of us promise to cheer you on.

It's not just that the presidential choices for 2008 are more diverse than ever before, it's that the stakes are higher than they've ever been in most Americans' lifetimes. With global warming, an energy crisis and bio-terrorism looming over our heads, we're talking about our very survival as a species. The nuclear Armageddon fears of the past - whether the Russians or North Koreans will get jacked up enough to start World War III - pale in comparison to whether humans can survive a planetary climate or pole shift. We're talking about things that may be beyond our control to change or reverse. Now is the time for unity, not division. The whole system needs to change if we're going to make it, as a country AND as citizens of the world. We want someone to show us the way, not the old way, not the same way, but a new way.

Is there such a person? Of course there is, and likely more than one. But you won't be able to discern who if you don't even know the line-up. And you won't be able to chose your future if you don't get in the game. The time is long overdue to break from a re-run of the past. In evaluating who can lead America to a new future, don't just vote for the new faces you haven't seen in the race before. Don't let gender, color, religions, looks or age distract you from the substance or lack thereof underneath. Search for courage, search for independence, search for the candidates willing to cross party lines to do what's right. Search for rules being broken because they need to be. Know the issues and judge your candidates on where they stand. And vote your conscience; vote your heart, not simply your party line. But most of all, vote! Vote this time around especially in the primaries as well as the general election. After all, 2008 may well be the election of your life.

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Who's Running?

Some notable names in the field of potential presidential candidates:

DEMOCRATSOFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED

Senator Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York
Senator Christopher J. Dodd of Connecticut
John Edwards, former senator from North Carolina
Mike Gravel, former senator from Alaska
Representative Dennis J. Kucinich of Ohio
Senator Barack Obama of Illinois

ESTABLISHING EXPLORATORY COMMITTEES

Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico

ALSO MENTIONED

Al Gore, former vice president; from Tennessee
Gen. Wesley Clark, retired NATO commander; from Arkansas
Rev. Al Sharpton OFFICIALLY NOT RUNNING
Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts
Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana
Senator Russell D. Feingold of Wisconsin
Tom Vilsack, former governor of Iowa
Mark Warner, former governor of Virginia

REPUBLICANS OFFICIALLY ANNOUNCED

Senator Sam Brownback of Kansas
Representative Duncan Hunter of California
Rudolph W. Giuliani, former mayor of New York
Mitt Romney, former governor of Massachusetts

ESTABLISHING EXPLORATORY COMMITTEES

Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas
Senator John McCain of Arizona
Tommy G. Thompson, former governor of Wisconsin
James S. Gilmore III, former governor of Virginia
Representative Tom Tancredo of Colorado
Representative Ron Paul of Texas

ALSO MENTIONED

Newt Gingrich, former House speaker from Georgia
Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska
Gov. George E. Pataki of New York
Fred Thompson, actor and former senator from Tennessee